Weekly Buzz: Liberation Day tariffs have been postponed (again)

5 minute read

Trump's 9 July deadline for countries to strike deals or face the steep tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” had markets on edge. Instead, we got something that's become somewhat of a familiar pattern: another delay and fresh uncertainty.

What’s going on?

The White House has now pushed off higher tariffs to 1 August. To add to the confusion, President Trump has started sending individual "tariff letters" to trading partners with details of new rates. So far, only three countries have managed to secure deals: China, the UK, and Vietnam. The rest of the world is scrambling, with the EU reportedly working on a skeletal agreement and India expected to finalise a deal soon.

This policy flip-flopping may be the new baseline. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admits there's been a lot of “foot-dragging" from countries, but when the rules keep changing, it’s difficult to settle on an agreement. The US dollar has weakened amid what Reuters calls Trump's "chaotic tariff policy". Rarely has market commentary been so blunt.

This uncertainty is bleeding into corporate boardrooms as well. Companies can’t commit to supply chains or pricing strategies when trade rules shift weekly. Barron’s looked at company earnings calls (Simply Finance below breaks this down) and found a 132% increase in mention of “tariffs” and a 20% increase in the word “uncertainty” in the past 90 days.

What's the takeaway?

The lesson here isn't to avoid volatility, but to position your portfolio for it. During Trump's first term, tariffs similarly triggered market jitters, yet the S&P 500 still delivered strong returns over the period. Markets hate uncertainty, but they're remarkably good at adapting once the dust settles.

(For a globally diversified portfolio built to navigate this kind of uncertainty, check out General Investing.)

📰 In Other News: US jobs beat expectations – but there's more to it

The US economy worked overtime in June, adding 147,000 jobs to comfortably beat expectations and push unemployment down to 4.1%. As with most economic data, however, the devil's in the details.

Private companies hired just 74,000 workers – the weakest showing since October. Government payrolls, meanwhile, surged by 80,000, accounting for more than half of all job gains – a possible sign that private businesses are pulling back.

AI might be playing a role too. Corporate leaders are increasingly vocal about AI-driven job cuts ahead: Ford's CEO believes half the company's office roles could vanish, while JPMorgan is preparing for a 10% workforce reduction. Reportedly, Shopify now requires managers to prove AI can't do a job before approving new hires.

For now, America's labour market continues to defy predictions of a sharper slowdown. A resilient US economy typically supports global growth, but it also keeps the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates. Bond traders immediately dialled back expectations for July rate cuts, with yields spiking after the jobs report's release.

This article was written in collaboration with Finimize.

🎓 Simply Finance: Earnings calls

Every quarter, public companies hold earnings calls where executives present their financial results and answer questions. Market watchers are listening for something else entirely: the words between the lines. Language analysis has proven surprisingly predictive for this – during the 2008 crisis, mentions of "credit" and "liquidity" spiked in earnings calls well before banks officially acknowledged their problems.

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